September 19, 2021

Voters split evenly on whether to recall Newsom

2 min read

A New Emerson College poll shows that California voters are practically split on whether to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom.

The Emerson poll indicates a statistical tie between likely voters who favor removing Newsom (46%) and those who don’t (48%), which falls within the margin of error of 3%. The poll was conducted between July 30 and Aug. 1.

Undecided voters have moved more toward recalling than not recalling, by an increase of 3% compared to the next most recent poll conducted in early July. The majority of Hispanic voters, 54%, favor removing Newsom, according to the poll.

White respondents remain split (48% recall/49% keep); whereas the majorities of Black (41% recall/57% keep) and Asian (30% recall/49% keep) respondents favor keeping Newsom as governor.

While a plurality of voters, 40%, remain unsure about which candidate they would choose to replace Newsom if a majority votes to recall, among those who are decided, Republican Larry Elder holds a commanding lead.

If elected, Elder would be the first black Republican governor of California.

Since July’s poll, Elder has gained seven percentage points, now receiving 23% support, three times that of his next closest challengers. Forty-four percent of Republicans and 29% of Independents say they are planning to vote for Elder. A majority, 55%, of those who voted for former President Donald Trump in 2020 say they are voting for Elder.

Businessman John Cox and television personality Caitlyn Jenner received 7% support, followed by California State Assemblyman Kevin Kiley at 5%, former San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer at 4%, and social media influencer Kevin Paffrath at 1%. Thirteen percent said they plan to vote for someone else.

The majority of those who said they voted for Biden in 2020, 70%, said they were undecided.

Men remain split on the recall, with 47% both supporting and opposing it; women favor keeping Newsom by a margin of 7 points.

The primary issue of concern to voters is homelessness, followed by housing, COVD-19, crime, the environment, jobs, and education. However, Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson College Polling, said, “this poll suggests that the tightening of the race could be attributed to people’s increased concern on crime.”

Early voting begins mid-August, after the first mail-in ballots are sent to voters. California is still operating under state shutdown voting rules, meaning that ballots will be sent to all registered voters, not only to those who requested them.

This article was originally posted on Voters split evenly on whether to recall Newsom

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